Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VT -175 MIA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -0.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.6 (-7.6) | 155.0 (-9.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.3 (-7.3) | 154.2 (-8.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.8 (-6.8) | 155.2 (-9.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -1.1 (-7.1) | 157.0 (-11.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#74) | 10.9 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#71) | 2.65 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#62) | 3.22 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#69) | 0.620 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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