Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -440 VT +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -8.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -8.1 (-7.1) | 150.9 (-17.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -6.2 (-5.2) | 152.9 (-19.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -8.1 (-7.1) | 148.6 (-15.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -8.1 (-7.1) | 149.6 (-16.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MIA 76 – 70 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#36) | 9.9 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#32) | 1.97 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#30) | 2.53 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#55) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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