Betting Lines
| Spread | ODU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ODU -140 USM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USM -0.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ODU -0.1 (+2.9) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.2 (+3.2) | 140.9 (+4.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -0.3 (+3.3) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ODU -0.5 (+2.5) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USM 86 – 81 ODU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USM 78 – 73 ODU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | ODU 69 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#349) | -8.8 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#325) | -1.27 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#305) | -1.84 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#323) | 0.404 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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