Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USM -175 ODU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | USM -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -5.8 (-0.8) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -5.1 (-0.1) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -4.9 (+0.1) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -5.2 (-0.2) | 143.1 (+7.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USM 86 – 81 ODU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ODU 74 – 71 USM |
| Feb 23, 2023 | ODU 69 – 64 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#238) | -6.2 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#189) | -1.63 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#211) | -1.70 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#182) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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