Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ODU +110 USM -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ODU -0.2 (+4.8) | 138.2 (-5.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.2 (+6.2) | 137.6 (-4.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.3 (+6.3) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.3 (+6.3) | 138.6 (-5.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USM 86 – 81 ODU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ODU 74 – 71 USM |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USM 78 – 73 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#157) | 5.8 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#139) | 1.66 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#145) | 1.81 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#110) | 0.595 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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