Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -900 OU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +28 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -10.4 (+17.6) | 163.0 (+23.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.2 (+15.8) | 163.9 (+22.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.8 (+18.2) | 162.0 (+24.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.8 (+19.2) | 161.6 (+24.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ALA 83 – 81 OU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | OU 93 – 69 ALA |
| Jan 30, 2021 | OU 66 – 61 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#11) | 11.1 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#10) | 4.24 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#9) | 5.62 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.692 (#3) | 0.585 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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