Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | OU +163 ALA -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +24 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -7.9 (+31.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.5 (+28.5) | 147.5 (+14.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.9 (+28.9) | 147.0 (+15.0) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.9 (+29.9) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.4 (+29.4) | 146.4 (+15.6) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ALA 83 – 81 OU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALA 107 – 79 OU |
| Jan 30, 2021 | OU 66 – 61 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | 19.9 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#65) | 3.86 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#54) | 4.62 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#77) | 0.683 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 45.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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