Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 177.5 Under |
| Money | OU +210 ALA -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -6.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -3.3 (+1.3) | 179.6 (-15.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.2 (+2.2) | 168.6 (-4.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.5 (+2.5) | 168.2 (-4.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.6 (+4.6) | 170.6 (-6.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALA 107 – 79 OU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | OU 93 – 69 ALA |
| Jan 30, 2021 | OU 66 – 61 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#66) | 19.3 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#60) | 3.18 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#64) | 4.29 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#129) | 0.648 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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