Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | OU +163 ALA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -0.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -1.7 (+3.3) | 150.7 (-23.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -2.5 (+2.5) | 148.1 (-21.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -2.9 (+2.1) | 150.1 (-23.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.9 (+2.1) | 152.7 (-25.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ALA 83 – 81 OU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALA 107 – 79 OU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | OU 93 – 69 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#22) | 17.8 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#10) | 2.99 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#19) | 3.94 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#22) | 0.659 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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