All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Southland Conference · Lakefront Arena · January 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread RGV -7.5 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Under
Money UNO +290 / RGV -380
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNO win
Actual RGV +12 140 Lost
Massey RGV -7.4 (-4.6)
Massey Totals 161.8 (-21.8)
Bradley-Terry 41%
Weighted B-T 47%
Efficiency Plus ML RGV -6.4 (-5.6) 157.1 (-17.1) 29%
Baseline Tuned ML RGV -6.7 (-5.3) 156.1 (-16.1) 29%
Baseline ML RGV -6.9 (-5.1) 156.3 (-16.3) 24%
Baseline Plus ML RGV -6.8 (-5.2) 155.4 (-15.4) 25%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 RGV 9576 UNO
Dec 30, 2025 UNO 8569 RGV
Mar 1, 2025 RGV 8878 UNO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNO RGV
Overall 4-27 16-15
Conference 2-18 8-12
Home 0-11 12-4
Away 3-15 2-11
Neutral 1-1 2-0
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L13 W2
Avg Pts For 67.9 74.1
Avg Pts Against 82.5 76.8
Massey -12.0 (#345) -0.5 (#166)
Bradley-Terry -1.08 (#268) 0.07 (#162)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.46 (#273) -0.47 (#203)
RPI 0.479 (#204) 0.511 (#145)
Shooting & Four Factors UNO RGV
FG% 38.5% 44.7%
3PT% 29.3% 30.4%
REB / G 36.1 34.1
OREB / G 12.7 10.9
AST / TO 0.85 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.6% 52.2%
TOV% 19.4% 18.1%
ORB% 31.1% 29.9%
FT Rate 20.4% 17.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.2% 53.6%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 19.5%
DRB% 62.8% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 26.0%

Game Analysis

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