Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -800 SC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +35 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -13.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -12.4 (+22.6) | 143.2 (-8.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -11.7 (+23.3) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -12.7 (+22.3) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -12.1 (+22.9) | 143.6 (-8.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SC 97 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSST 65 – 60 SC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SC 93 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SC 68 – 62 MSST |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSST 74 – 68 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#20) | 6.9 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#6) | 1.26 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#8) | 1.69 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#32) | 0.560 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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