Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -225 SC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +4 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+50.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.6 (-8.6) | 137.0 (+45.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -5.3 (-9.3) | 136.5 (+45.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -4.5 (-8.5) | 134.5 (+47.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.4 (-8.4) | 136.0 (+46.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SC 97 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSST 65 – 60 SC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSST 85 – 50 SC |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SC 68 – 62 MSST |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSST 74 – 68 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#39) | 9.3 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#44) | 2.74 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | 3.34 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#55) | 0.583 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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