Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SC +230 MSST -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -6.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.0 (-0.0) | 140.0 (-15.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.7 (-0.3) | 139.4 (-14.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.2 (+0.2) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -5.4 (+0.4) | 139.0 (-14.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SC 97 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSST 85 – 50 SC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SC 93 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SC 68 – 62 MSST |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSST 74 – 68 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | 16.6 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#88) | 3.42 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#86) | 4.28 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#95) | 0.634 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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