Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH +100 TROY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.6 (+0.6) | 137.8 (-22.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -2.3 (+1.3) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -1.2 (+0.2) | 137.4 (-22.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.9 (+0.9) | 138.2 (-23.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | TROY 70 – 63 MRSH |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TROY 82 – 66 MRSH |
| Feb 19, 2023 | MRSH 88 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#203) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#233) | 0.73 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#232) | 0.90 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#265) | 0.533 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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