Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -333 MRSH +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -8.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.1 (+9.9) | 151.7 (-3.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -7.2 (+8.8) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -7.1 (+8.9) | 148.3 (-0.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.6 (+9.4) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | TROY 70 – 63 MRSH |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TROY 58 – 57 MRSH |
| Feb 19, 2023 | MRSH 88 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#142) | -3.3 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#155) | -0.42 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#139) | -0.48 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#131) | 0.479 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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