Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -450 TROY +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -9.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -8.6 (+1.4) | 148.0 (+18.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.9 (+3.1) | 148.0 (+18.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -9.4 (+0.6) | 146.1 (+19.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -8.3 (+1.7) | 147.3 (+18.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | TROY 70 – 63 MRSH |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TROY 58 – 57 MRSH |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TROY 82 – 66 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#69) | 2.6 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#82) | 0.31 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#78) | 0.48 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#58) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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