Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ND +150 UNC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -3.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.4 (+1.4) | 157.7 (-10.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.4 (+2.4) | 155.3 (-8.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.5 (+1.5) | 156.0 (-9.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.0 (+1.0) | 156.3 (-9.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNC 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#97) | 13.0 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#154) | 2.18 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#133) | 2.84 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#141) | 0.621 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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