Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ND +210 UNC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -7.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.8 (+2.8) | 149.4 (-27.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -6.5 (+2.5) | 146.2 (-24.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.2 (+2.2) | 148.0 (-26.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.4 (+2.4) | 148.5 (-26.5) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNC 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | 10.6 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#221) | 1.69 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#204) | 2.30 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#243) | 0.580 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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