Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -650 ND +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -8.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.8 (+12.2) | 151.9 (-19.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.9 (+12.1) | 149.9 (-17.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.1 (+11.9) | 151.2 (-19.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -7.6 (+12.4) | 151.8 (-19.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNC 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#37) | 5.6 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#44) | 0.53 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#44) | 0.79 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#33) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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