Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -2000 ND +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +33 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -17.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -15.1 (+17.9) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.4 (+17.6) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -15.3 (+17.7) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -15.1 (+17.9) | 137.2 (-2.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNC 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#13) | 3.1 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#6) | 0.39 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#5) | 0.60 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#9) | 0.493 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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