Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -1000 ND +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -16.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.2 (+4.8) | 150.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.1 (+4.9) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.3 (+4.7) | 149.2 (-4.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.8 (+4.2) | 150.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#30) | -0.1 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#29) | -0.04 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#28) | 0.41 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#10) | 0.502 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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