Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -1100 ND +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.7 (+12.3) | 139.2 (+20.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.8 (+11.2) | 140.6 (+19.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.2 (+12.8) | 139.2 (+20.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.4 (+12.6) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNC 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#31) | 8.0 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#28) | 1.42 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#34) | 2.01 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.560 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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