Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | WMU +115 TOL -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -0.0 (-6.0) | 146.9 (-0.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -0.1 (-6.1) | 146.9 (-0.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -0.5 (-6.5) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -0.3 (-6.3) | 149.7 (-3.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TOL 92 – 50 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#253) | -2.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#332) | 0.20 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#328) | -0.10 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#311) | 0.513 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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