Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1200 WMU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +28 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -14.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.3 (+16.7) | 152.5 (+23.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.2 (+14.8) | 153.1 (+22.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.3 (+17.7) | 154.1 (+21.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.2 (+16.8) | 155.2 (+20.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TOL 92 – 50 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-4 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#117) | -6.6 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#131) | -2.56 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#119) | -3.36 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.429 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.