Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -600 WMU +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.6 (-5.6) | 153.2 (+9.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.0 (-4.0) | 152.5 (+10.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.9 (-3.9) | 153.1 (+9.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -9.6 (-4.6) | 152.5 (+10.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TOL 92 – 50 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 80.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#161) | -7.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | -0.45 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#155) | -0.79 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.474 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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