Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +42 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -16.0 (-26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -14.6 (-27.4) | 146.0 (-4.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -15.3 (-26.7) | 145.7 (-3.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -13.6 (-28.4) | 146.0 (-4.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -13.9 (-28.1) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 17-3 |
| Home | 4-10 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#332) | 6.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#324) | 1.33 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#328) | 1.37 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#315) | 0.578 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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