Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +225 TOL -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +11 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -4.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.6 (-7.4) | 147.5 (+21.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.5 (-7.5) | 146.6 (+22.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.7 (-7.3) | 148.3 (+20.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.2 (-6.8) | 147.8 (+21.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TOL 92 – 50 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#286) | 0.3 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#252) | -0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#253) | 0.12 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#265) | 0.517 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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