Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1000 WMU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +25 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -11.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.9 (+14.1) | 151.4 (-0.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -12.3 (+12.7) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.2 (+14.8) | 150.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.1 (+14.9) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TOL 92 – 50 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | -5.8 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#107) | -1.10 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#123) | -1.46 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#102) | 0.441 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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