Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–43 on winners spread MAE 8.6 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ VCU +10.2 144.9 83% 61–85 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena -10.5 142.8 16% 82–70 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +1.0 150.1 57% 78–74 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +1.7 133.8 59% 48–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +2.0 134.2 60% 67–76 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +4.5 142.7 71% 58–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +8.3 140.1 80% 75–73 ✗
Wagner @ Merrimack +7.1 126.3 75% 71–65 ✗
Long Island University @ Saint Francis +2.8 138.7 63% 66–72 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -4.5 146.3 32% 62–65 ✗
Akron @ Kent State -2.9 143.3 37% 77–71 ✓
Indiana @ Wisconsin +12.0 144.0 87% 79–91 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +8.9 144.9 81% 75–78 ✓
Baylor @ Texas -2.3 145.7 39% 73–75 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +1.2 146.2 57% 73–72 ✗
Creighton @ Seton Hall +0.1 136.6 50% 97–94 ✗
Miami @ Syracuse +2.7 149.1 62% 69–72 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +4.2 142.9 70% 84–78 ✗
Louisville @ Wake Forest +14.0 151.7 88% 65–90 ✓
Penn State @ Ohio State +8.5 146.3 80% 67–79 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts +7.3 158.1 77% 67–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -5.9 147.0 28% 80–63 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +13.3 141.4 88% 62–96 ✓
Oklahoma @ Cincinnati +3.9 139.3 68% 69–65 ✗
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb -0.0 147.4 50% 74–79 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +1.6 135.8 58% 66–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Arkansas +0.3 141.1 54% 77–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Fordham -0.2 142.6 51% 65–61 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI -11.0 142.6 15% 63–70 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMBC -5.0 155.7 28% 64–58 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota -4.8 158.3 32% 78–92 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +6.1 146.0 73% 74–72 ✗
Army @ Navy +4.8 127.8 68% 53–57 ✓
UCF @ Houston +15.1 128.3 89% 42–57 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.3 159.0 62% 71–91 ✓
Iowa State @ TCU +1.1 144.9 56% 73–72 ✗
Rice @ Temple +4.7 141.8 69% 69–66 ✗
Illinois State @ Missouri State +6.0 131.5 73% 69–60 ✗
Belmont @ Bradley +10.5 149.0 84% 72–95 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +7.6 142.6 80% 61–64 ✓
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T +1.3 147.5 55% 69–76 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +13.4 146.2 87% 77–85 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +6.3 134.9 74% 67–86 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +9.2 131.4 82% 59–75 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +1.8 133.9 58% 60–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +1.2 134.3 53% 78–86 ✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette +1.0 129.1 56% 72–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +5.2 149.3 74% 79–84 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State +1.8 140.3 60% 87–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +0.1 146.2 49% 62–65 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +2.0 155.2 59% 68–75 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -12.2 132.1 14% 76–51 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -10.5 149.0 17% 70–62 ✓
Maine @ NJIT -3.0 132.5 35% 70–64 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -7.3 147.8 23% 80–60 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -4.8 151.2 33% 73–55 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +1.3 153.6 59% 67–72 ✓
Cornell @ Brown -6.1 151.9 25% 84–83 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa -4.0 161.3 31% 84–70 ✓
North Carolina @ Boston College -6.9 149.7 26% 76–66 ✓
USC @ Arizona State +1.7 143.3 60% 67–82 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska +4.1 145.7 69% 69–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +6.9 141.2 76% 69–71 ✓
East Carolina @ UAB +3.6 141.9 72% 61–69 ✓
Tulsa @ SMU +13.8 139.9 88% 70–103 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +9.4 137.7 85% 70–80 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern -6.1 148.8 25% 70–86 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville -3.3 158.2 38% 83–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +14.6 136.3 88% 55–68 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -1.8 144.4 45% 63–64 ✗
Kansas @ West Virginia -11.0 144.8 16% 85–91 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona +19.3 141.7 91% 71–77 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +15.5 145.7 90% 62–83 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -5.4 143.5 25% 68–71 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +6.8 136.6 77% 63–67 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -3.3 134.7 35% 62–79 ✗
Clemson @ Florida State +1.6 148.5 59% 78–67 ✗
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +0.2 136.7 51% 72–61 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte -0.2 124.6 47% 44–56 ✗
UIC @ Valparaiso -2.0 133.4 43% 77–84 ✗
Campbell @ Towson +7.6 126.2 76% 43–77 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +16.5 147.8 90% 60–74 ✓
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1.8 152.3 57% 97–99 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU +2.4 144.5 63% 73–69 ✗
Richmond @ Davidson -1.2 133.1 45% 69–64 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -13.1 142.1 14% 85–66 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +0.5 142.5 55% 65–61 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio +10.4 145.1 86% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +5.9 144.4 75% 59–82 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -13.4 143.0 13% 105–64 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama -1.4 149.0 46% 88–79 ✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian +0.3 148.4 52% 67–78 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +4.2 140.7 68% 71–84 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +6.4 138.0 76% 73–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +0.9 133.1 48% 61–70 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State +1.1 131.1 59% 89–86 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +3.3 135.0 67% 58–57 ✗
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana -9.7 133.0 16% 81–70 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood -1.8 133.2 40% 78–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ App State +15.5 138.4 89% 59–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +3.4 131.7 66% 68–52 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.2 143.6 62% 59–69 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -6.9 151.1 25% 77–78 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State -8.1 137.0 20% 47–52 ✗
Washington State @ California -4.6 144.4 30% 75–81 ✗
American University @ Lehigh -1.0 141.5 47% 68–70 ✗
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +7.9 152.7 81% 79–88 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida +4.5 151.7 71% 75–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State -1.7 131.0 43% 74–57 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -2.1 138.1 40% 52–54 ✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State +0.1 142.1 52% 79–72 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +9.5 142.4 85% 71–94 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans +6.4 148.7 77% 92–67 ✗
Georgia @ Kentucky +10.0 159.7 84% 96–105 ✓
BYU @ Texas Tech -2.9 143.6 41% 78–85 ✗
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -0.4 132.2 50% 75–66 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +12.6 148.3 88% 48–97 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +2.6 151.6 65% 69–78 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +14.3 150.2 88% 80–87 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +4.3 142.2 69% 70–61 ✗
Marshall @ James Madison +12.9 153.1 88% 52–67 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word -13.9 143.6 13% 80–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +2.1 139.4 61% 52–74 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +5.7 145.7 74% 71–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.