Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA +210 PUR -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -6.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.7 (-9.3) | 164.4 (-10.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.4 (-10.6) | 163.9 (-9.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.0 (-10.0) | 161.3 (-7.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.5 (-9.5) | 162.8 (-8.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
| Feb 10, 2023 | PUR 87 – 73 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#32) | 22.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#65) | 3.66 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#63) | 4.43 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#75) | 0.701 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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