Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA +120 PUR -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +21 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -1.7 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -1.1 (-22.1) | 142.3 (-7.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -0.8 (-21.8) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.9 (-21.9) | 142.6 (-7.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.9 (-21.9) | 144.0 (-9.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
| Feb 10, 2023 | PUR 87 – 73 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#27) | 21.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#32) | 3.76 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#32) | 4.74 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#46) | 0.647 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 2.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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