Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -1100 IOWA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.3 (+9.7) | 163.9 (-8.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.4 (+7.6) | 160.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.6 (+8.4) | 162.7 (-7.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.1 (+8.9) | 162.4 (-7.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Feb 10, 2023 | PUR 87 – 73 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#4) | 13.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#6) | 1.78 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.43 (#6) | 2.87 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.718 (#1) | 0.605 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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