Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -350 IOWA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.7 (+6.3) | 150.5 (+9.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.8 (+5.2) | 147.0 (+13.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.6 (+5.4) | 153.9 (+6.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.9 (+6.1) | 154.8 (+5.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#7) | 12.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#1) | 1.87 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#1) | 2.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#5) | 0.568 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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