Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA +240 PUR -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +9 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -5.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.2 (-4.8) | 156.5 (+14.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.0 (-5.0) | 154.4 (+16.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.7 (-4.3) | 153.1 (+17.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.0 (-5.0) | 153.8 (+17.2) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
| Feb 10, 2023 | PUR 87 – 73 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#57) | 18.7 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#60) | 3.32 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#59) | 4.29 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#94) | 0.663 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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