Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -625 IOWA +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -9.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.3 (-4.3) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -9.9 (-2.9) | 135.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.9 (-2.9) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.3 (-3.3) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
| Feb 10, 2023 | PUR 87 – 73 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#6) | 17.2 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#6) | 2.09 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.58 (#7) | 3.02 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.679 (#3) | 0.579 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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