Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1200 MER +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -16.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -15.4 (-8.4) | 149.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -14.3 (-7.3) | 150.2 (+16.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -15.1 (-8.1) | 151.8 (+15.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -15.6 (-8.6) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#73) | -5.0 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#24) | -0.79 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#38) | -1.33 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#59) | 0.458 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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