Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +800 MCN -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -14.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -13.2 (-0.8) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -11.2 (-2.8) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -13.9 (-0.1) | 143.6 (+2.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -13.0 (-1.0) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MCN 81 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 2, 2025 | UIW 71 – 67 MCN |
| Feb 4, 2025 | MCN 67 – 65 UIW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MCN 87 – 71 UIW |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MCN 78 – 76 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 17-1 |
| Home | 5-8 | 18-0 |
| Away | 3-14 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#334) | 7.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#331) | 2.09 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#343) | 2.72 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#355) | 0.585 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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