Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -800 MRSH +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -16.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-42.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -13.4 (+1.6) | 155.7 (-36.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -12.9 (+2.1) | 153.1 (-34.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -14.9 (+0.1) | 153.6 (-34.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -15.1 (-0.1) | 156.2 (-37.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 12-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#62) | -4.0 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#49) | -0.45 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#64) | -0.52 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#116) | 0.472 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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