Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -125 JMU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -0.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -0.6 (+1.4) | 138.1 (+19.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.4 (+2.4) | 138.6 (+19.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -0.2 (+1.8) | 138.3 (+19.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.1 (+1.9) | 138.0 (+20.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JMU 84 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#208) | 1.6 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#237) | 0.52 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#230) | 0.73 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#259) | 0.544 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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