Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -278 JMU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -8.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.0 (-1.0) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -6.3 (-1.3) | 148.5 (+0.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -6.2 (-1.2) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -7.1 (-2.1) | 149.7 (-0.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JMU 84 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#174) | -5.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#137) | -0.45 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#148) | -0.82 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#89) | 0.494 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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