Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH +210 JMU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +26 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -9.6 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -6.8 (-19.2) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -8.7 (-17.3) | 150.1 (-8.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -8.1 (-17.9) | 152.8 (-10.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -8.2 (-17.8) | 152.3 (-10.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#232) | 9.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#238) | 1.93 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#226) | 2.13 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#211) | 0.554 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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