Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -130 MRSH +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -1.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -0.1 (-1.9) | 152.5 (-22.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.1 (-2.1) | 151.0 (-21.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -0.9 (-1.1) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.9 (-1.1) | 150.6 (-20.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JMU 84 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#230) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#186) | 0.81 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#199) | 0.83 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#176) | 0.555 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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