Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -125 NORF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -1.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -0.5 (-4.5) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.5 (-4.5) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.3 (-4.3) | 142.8 (-16.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -0.2 (-3.8) | 143.0 (-17.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#255) | -2.6 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#261) | -0.32 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#247) | -0.45 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#281) | 0.469 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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