Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -167 SC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -1.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.0 (-14.0) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.3 (-13.3) | 141.1 (-0.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.4 (-13.4) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -0.3 (-12.7) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARK 108 – 74 SC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | ARK 72 – 68 SC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SC 72 – 53 ARK |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SC 80 – 66 ARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARK 65 – 63 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#108) | 6.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#88) | 2.42 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#94) | 2.85 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#93) | 0.591 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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