Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -190 SC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.0 (-1.0) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.7 (+0.3) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.3 (-1.3) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.0 (-1.0) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARK 108 – 74 SC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SC 72 – 53 ARK |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SC 80 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC 77 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARK 65 – 63 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#35) | 7.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#34) | 1.16 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#36) | 1.74 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#59) | 0.517 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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