Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SC -120 ARK +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +19 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.4 (+23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.3 (+22.3) | 143.7 (-18.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.0 (+21.0) | 142.7 (-17.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.3 (+21.3) | 141.3 (-16.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.5 (+21.5) | 142.4 (-17.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARK 108 – 74 SC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | ARK 72 – 68 SC |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SC 80 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC 77 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARK 65 – 63 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#85) | 14.3 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#89) | 2.36 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#78) | 3.06 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#148) | 0.563 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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