Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -850 SC +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +34 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -11.9 (+22.1) | 156.0 (+26.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -11.4 (+22.6) | 156.2 (+25.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.0 (+23.0) | 153.6 (+28.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.6 (+23.4) | 154.3 (+27.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | ARK 72 – 68 SC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SC 72 – 53 ARK |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SC 80 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC 77 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARK 65 – 63 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#29) | 8.1 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#29) | 0.64 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#24) | 1.38 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#28) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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