Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SC -250 ARK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SC -5.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -5.7 (+8.3) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -4.2 (+9.8) | 145.3 (+0.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -6.3 (+7.7) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -6.2 (+7.8) | 144.3 (+1.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARK 108 – 74 SC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | ARK 72 – 68 SC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SC 72 – 53 ARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC 77 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARK 65 – 63 SC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#56) | 4.3 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#6) | 1.03 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#6) | 1.22 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#42) | 0.538 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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