Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -200 SPU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -3.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.2 (+6.8) | 133.7 (+9.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.0 (+7.0) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.5 (+6.5) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.5 (+6.5) | 133.9 (+9.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | 0.32 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#203) | 0.45 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.514 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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