Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +115 LUC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -0.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -0.2 (-3.8) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -1.3 (-5.3) | 145.7 (-19.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.1 (-3.9) | 145.4 (-19.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -0.3 (-3.7) | 143.3 (-17.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FOR 62 – 59 LUC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LUC 70 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 23, 2023 | FOR 71 – 69 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#188) | 3.0 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#226) | 0.80 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | 0.76 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#214) | 0.541 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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